Market News & Headlines >> USDA Reports Friendly for Corn Prices
Production and supply/demand data released by USDA on Friday were somewhat friendly for the corn market, indicating lower U.S. production and ending stocks, but held mixed news for soybeans and more negative news for the wheat market.
USDA, in its monthly Crop Production report pegged U.S. corn production at 13.585 million bushels on a national average yield of 167.5 bushels per acre, down from its August estimate of 13.686 billion bushels on a yield of 168.8 bushels.
USDA’s production and yield forecasts were still toward the high end of trade estimates, with pre-report production forecasts averaging 13.493 billion bushels in a range from 13.050-13.870 billion and expectations for the U.S. yield averaging 166.6 bushels in a range from 161.0-170.5 bushels, according to a survey of 23 analysts by the Wall Street Journal.
USDA cut its forecast for the 2015-16 U.S. corn carryout by 121 million bushels to 1.592 billion bushels due to the lower new-crop production and a cut in the expected old-crop carry-in. USDA’s stocks forecast was closely in line with trade estimates averaging 1.580 billion bushels in a range from 1.130-1.877 billion. USDA also cut its forecast for 2015-16 world corn ending stocks by 5.4 million metric tons.
USDA surprised the soybean trade by raising its U.S. production estimate to 3.935 billion bushels from an August estimated of 3.916 billion bushels and raising the expected average U.S. yield to 47.1 bushels per acre from 46.9 bushels in August.
Trade estimates of soybean production average 3.838 billion bushels in a range from 3.590-3935 billion bushels, while trade estimates of the U.S. soybean yield averaged 46.0 bushels in a range from 43.0-47.1 bushels.
Despite raising its 2015 production forecast, USDA cut its projected 2015-16 U.S. soybean carryout by 20 million bushels to 450 million as it cut old-crop ending stocks by another 30 million bushels on a stronger projected crush and stronger exports. USDA’s ending stocks forecast was still toward the high end of trade estimates that averaged 396 million bushels in a range from 125-475 million. USDA also cut its forecast for 2015-16 world soybean ending stocks by another 1.9 million metric tons.
USDA’s forecasts for U.S. and world wheat ending stocks grew yet again, adding to the fundamental pressure on the wheat market. USDA did not issue a new estimate of U.S. wheat production; it’s next estimate will be contained in the annual Small Grains Summary report due out on Sept. 30.
USDA pegged U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2015-6 at 875 million bushels up from the August forecast of 850 million bushels on a cut to projected U.S. exports. The new USDA estimate was toward the high end of trade estimates that averaged 860 million bushels in a range from 828-892 million.
USDA raised its forecast for 2015-16 world wheat ending stocks by another 5.1 million metric tons to 226.6 million tons, largely due to a larger expected crop in the European Union.