Market News & Headlines >> USDA Seen Cutting Corn, Soybean Carryouts

USDA is expected to lower its forecasts for 2017/18 U.S. corn and soybean ending stocks, but raise projected wheat ending stocks when it releases its monthly supply/demand update on Thursday morning.

The projected corn and soybean carryouts are expected to fall due to the lower old-crop carry-ins of 2.295 billion bushels of corn and 301 million bushels of soybeans indicated by USDA’s quarterly Grain Stocks report. USDA could also raise new-crop usage projections based on the stronger old-crop disappearance implied by the Sept. 1 corn and soybean stocks numbers. 

Trade estimates of the 2017/18 U.S. corn carryout average 2.251 billion bushels in a range from 1.985-2.425 billion compared with USDA’s September estimate of 2.335 billion bushels. Pre-report estimates of the 2017/18 U.S. soybean carryout average 452 million bushels in a range from 301-572 million bushels compared with USDA’s September estimate of 475 million. 

USDA is expected to raise its 2017/18 U.S. wheat carryout estimate after the Grain Stocks report showed Sept. 1 wheat stocks at 2.253 billion bushels, toward the high end of trade expectations. USDA could also lower projected 2017/18 feed/residual use and/or exports. Export demand for U.S. wheat is sluggish amid stiff competition from a bumper Black Sea region crop.