Market News & Headlines >> USDA Seen Raising Corn Carryout Estimates
USDA is expected to raise its U.S. corn carryout estimates for both 2019/20 and 2020/21 due to slow corn-for-ethanol use when it releases its monthly Supply/Demand report on Thursday morning.
Trade estimates of the U.S. corn carryout for the current 2019/20 marketing year average 2.163 billion bushels in a range from 2.075-2.303 billion bushels compared with USDA’s May forecast of 2.098 billion bushels, according to a Bloomberg News survey. Pre-report expectations for the 2020/21 U.S. corn carryout average 3.356 billion bushels in a range from 2.897-3.595 billion compared with USDA’s May estimate of 3.318 billion.
USDA could potentially cut its 2019/20 corn-for-ethanol use estimate substantially again, based on usage data. Although ethanol production has been steadily recovering over the past five weeks, it has continued to run below the level needed to reach USDA’s forecast.
USDA should stick with a 2020 corn crop estimate of 15.995 billion bushels, based on a weather-adjusted trend-line yield of 178.5 bushels per acre for corn and the March planting intentions of 97.0 million acres.
Little change is expected in USDA’s old-crop soybean carryout estimate. Trade estimates of the 2019/20 U.S. soybean carryout average 578 million bushels, just 2 million below USDA’s May estimate, in a range from 497-630 million.
USDA is expected to raise its soybean carryout for next marketing year. Pre-report expectations for the 2020/21 U.S. soybean carryout average 429 million bushels in a range from 350-572 million compared with USDA’s May estimate of 405 million.
USDA should stick with a 2020 soybean crop forecast of 4.125 billion bushels based on a weather-adjusted trend-line yield of 49.9 bushels per acre and March planting intentions of 83.5 million acres.
USDA is expected to raise its 2019/20 U.S. wheat carryout estimate marginally, with pre-report trade estimates averaging 980 million bushels, 2 million above USDA’s May estimate, in a range from 958-998 million bushels. USDA’s 2020/21 U.S. wheat carryout forecast is expected to fall as pre-report estimates average 901 million bushels, 8 million below USDA’s May forecast, in a range from 820-988 million bushels.