Market News & Headlines >> USDA Seen Raising Corn, Soy Crop Estimates
The grain trade is expecting USDA to raise its estimates of both U.S. corn and soybean production due to stronger-than-expected yields, when it releases its monthly Crop Production report on Friday, while U.S. wheat production is expected to come in slightly below the previous estimate due to disappointing spring wheat yields.
Friday’s report will provide the first survey estimate of this year’s corn and soybean crops. USDA’s previous 2018 crop estimates were based on weather-adjusted trend-line yields.
Trade estimates of the 2018 U.S. corn crop average 14.416 billion bushels in a range from14.210-14.740 billion bushels compared with USDA’s July projection of 14.230 billion, according to a Bloomberg survey of 31 analysts. Pre-report estimates of the U.S. corn yield average 176.3 bushels per acre in a range from 173.8-180.2 bushels compared with USDA’s July forecast of 174.0 bushels.
Trade expectations for the 2018 soybean crop average 4.425 billion bushels in a range from 4.346-4.576 billion bushels compared with USDA’s July projection of 4.310 billion. Pre-report estimates of the U.S. soybean yield average 49.8 bushels per acre in a range from 49.0-51.5 bushels, compared with USDA’s July forecast of 48.5 bushels.
On average, the trade expects USDA to lower its estimate of U.S. all-wheat production by 24 million bushels from 1.881 billion to 1.857 billion bushels, with pre-report estimates ranging from 1.700-1.907 billion bushels.
Trade estimates of “other” spring wheat production average 597 million bushels versus USDA’s July estimate of 614 million, while estimates of durum production average 74 million bushels, 1 million below USDA’s July forecast. Pre-report estimates of total winter wheat production average 1.185 billion bushels, compared with USDA’s July estimate of 1.193 billion.