Market News & Headlines >> USDA Seen Raising U.S. Grain, Soy Carryouts
The grain trade is expecting USDA to raise its forecasts for 2018/19 U.S. corn, soybean and wheat ending stocks in Thursday’s monthly supply/demand update due to larger-than-expected production, according to a survey of 17 analysts by Reuters News Service.
Trade estimates of the 2018/19 U.S. corn carryout average 1.712 billion bushels in a range from 1.545-1.922 billion compared with USDA’s June forecast of 1.577 billion bushels. USDA is expected to raise its U.S. crop production estimate to reflect the larger plantings of 89.128 million acres that it reported in its annual Crop Acreage on June 29, versus producers’ March planting intentions of 88.026 million acres.
Pre-report estimates of the 2018/19 U.S. soybean carryout average 471 million bushels in a range from 390-571 million compared with USDA’s June forecast of 385 million. As with corn, USDA is expected to raise its U.S. crop forecast to reflect the plantings of 89.557 million acres it reported in the Crop Acreage report versus producers’ March planting intentions of 88.982 million acres.
The U.S. wheat carryout is expected to be raised due to slightly larger old-crop ending stocks and larger-than-expected production. USDA should raise its U.S. all-wheat production estimate to reflect the plantings of 47.821 million acres it reported on June 29, which were up from producers’ March planting intentions of 47.339 million acres. Trade estimates of the 2018/19 U.S. wheat carryout average 973 million bushels in a range from 924 million-1.021 billion compared with USDA’s June estimate of 946 million bushels.
Only minor changes are expected to USDA’s 2017/18 balance sheets for corn and soybeans. Trade estimates of the old-crop corn carryout average 2.107 billion bushels, 5 million above USDA’s June forecast, while estimates of the old-crop soybean carryout average 507 million bushels, just 2 million above USDA’s June projection.