Market News & Headlines >> USDA Sees Record Soy Crop, Burdensome Supplies
USDA on Friday forecast a record large U.S. soybean crop of 4.586 billion bushels on a near-record U.S. yield and projected that both U.S. soybean ending stocks and world soybean ending stocks will be record large at the end of 2018/19.
The USDA crop production, yield and ending stocks estimates all surpassed trade expectations going into Friday’s monthly Crop Production and Supply/Demand reports.
USDA pegged the U.S. soybean carryout for next marketing year at 785 million bushels, up 355 million bushels, or nearly 83%, from revised 2017/18 ending stocks of 430 million bushels. The carryout forecast, if realized, would be 211 million bushels larger than the current record high of 574 million bushels in 2007/08.
The first survey estimate of the 2018 soybean crop was 194 million bushels larger than last year’s crop and 276 million bushels larger than USDA’s July forecast, which was based on a weather-adjusted trend-line yield and the June crop acreage survey.
The U.S. average yield of 51.6 bushels per acre was 2.5 bushels above last year’s final yield and just 0.5 bushels short of the record high set in 2016. The high U.S. yield was paced by an estimated 64.0-bushel per acre yield in Illinois and a 61.0-bushel yield in Nebraska.
USDA forecast a 1018-19 world soybean carryout of 105.94 million metric tons, up from a July forecast of 98.27 million tons and up from this year’s expected 95.61 million tons.