Market News & Headlines >> World Ending Stocks Seen Edging Higher

The grain trade is expecting USDA to raise its projections for 2016/17 world corn, soybean and wheat ending stocks slightly in Thursday’s monthly supply/demand update.

Trade estimates of the 2016/17 world corn carryout average 218.8 million metric tons, 1.1 million above USDA’s February projection, in a range from 217.0-223.1 million tons, according to a survey of 22 analysts by Bloomberg News. 

Pre-report expectations for the world soybean carryout average 81.5 million tons, also 1.1 million tons above USDA’s February projection, in a range from 80.0-83.0 million. 

On average, the trade expects USDA to peg the world wheat carryout at 249.1 million tons, up 500,000 tons from its February forecast in a range from 246.0-255.0 million tons. 

Rising production expectations appear to be the primary reason behind the expectations for higher world ending stocks. USDA appears likely to raise its forecast for Brazil’s 2016/17 soybean crop from the current level of 104.0 million tons and could potentially raise that country’s expected corn production as well. 

U.S. trade estimates of Brazil’s soybean crop average 106.0 million metric tons, according to a Bloomberg survey of 26 analysts. Pre-report estimates of Brazil’s corn production average 87.8 million tons compared with USDA’s February forecast of 86.5 million. 

USDA appears likely to raise its estimate of Australian wheat production at least slightly from February’s 33 million tons after ABARES, Australia’s official forecaster raised its crop forecast last month. USDA could also raise its projection for Argentina’s wheat crop from 15 million tons.