Market News & Headlines >> World Grain Stocks Seen Edging Lower
USDA is expected to lower its estimates of 2017/18 world ending stocks for corn, soybeans and wheat slightly in Tuesday morning’s monthly supply/demand update, according to a survey of 20 analysts by Bloomberg news.
Trade estimates of the world 2018/18 corn carryout average 202.6 million metric tons, 1.3 million tons below USDA’s November projection in a range from 195.7-205.0 million tons, according to the survey.
USDA is expected to lower its forecast for South American production. Trade estimates of Brazil’s next corn crop average only 93.2 million tons versus USDA’s November estimate of 95.0 million. Estimates of Argentina’s crop average 41.8 million tons, versus USDA’s November estimate of 42.0 million.
Pre-report estimates of world soybean ending stocks average 97.8 million tons, marginally below USDA’s November estimate of 97.9 million in a range from 95.2-99.0 million tons. Expectations are for USDA to raise its forecast for Brazilian production, but cut Argentina’s projected crop.
Trade expectations for Brazilian production average 108.3 million tons compared with USDA’s November forecast of 108.0 million, while estimates of Argentina’s crop average 56.6 million tons, down from USDA’s forecast of 57.0 million.
The trade consensus on the world wheat carryout was 267 million tons, 1.1 million tons below USDA’s November estimate, with trade estimates running 268.1-270.5 million tons. There is a good chance larger Canadian production will push USDA’s estimate of world stocks higher. Most of the trade estimates of world wheat ending stocks may have been made before Statistics Canada raised its crop estimate by nearly 3 million tons on Wednesday.